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BASIC4= Basketball
Analytical Science of Individual Categorical Forecasting
prepard by: Joe Duffel |
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Rudy
Gay |
Percentage of accuracy |
Based on last 10 yrs players average draft value is: |
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92.8% |
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COLLEGIATE
INFO |
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School |
Connecticut |
Height |
6 |
-9 |
Pts |
15.2 |
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Year |
2006 |
Lbs. |
222 |
Reb |
6.4 |
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College
Year |
Freshman |
Wingspan |
87.0 |
Assist |
2.1 |
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Position |
Shooting Guard |
Vertical |
40.5 |
Blocks |
1.6 |
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contact info:
admin@scoutingthenba.com |
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1 |
NBA Draft Scouting Report |
How to Video Link |
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Based on last
10 yrs players average draft value is: |
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Evaluation Score
(1-100) |
81 |
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Forecasting
what the players Per 36 will look like by his Contract Season |
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Projection from |
Projected MP |
Projected
Pts |
Proj Reb |
Assist |
Turnovers |
Blocks |
Steals |
Total |
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2006 |
37.50 |
19.87 |
6.28 |
2.45 |
2.45 |
0.81 |
1.80 |
81.10 |
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Actual
Stats from yr |
MP |
Pts |
Rebounds |
Assist |
Turnovers |
Blocks |
Steals |
Total |
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2008-09 |
37.30 |
20.39 |
5.93 |
1.83 |
2.80 |
0.76 |
1.29 |
72.26 |
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Difference
between Prediction / Actual Stats |
0.2 |
-0.5 |
0.3 |
0.6 |
-0.36 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
8.8 |
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Pct of
Accuracy |
99.5 |
97.5 |
94.5 |
74.8 |
87.2 |
93.4 |
72.0 |
89.1 |
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Scale below
is listed between 1- 100 |
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Evaluation Score |
Per 36 Total |
Projected
MP |
Athleticism + Pos Matchup |
Risk
Factor |
Defensive Match |
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81 |
81.1 |
84.38 |
100.78 |
1% |
98.1 |
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2 |
DRAFT EVALUATION NOTES: |
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Draft
Reflection - 3yrs from draft date |
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Data not
available on-line |
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3 |
Forecasted Stats vs.
Actual NBA Stats |
How to Video Link |
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Forecasted
Stats is where the stats are forecasted from the players evaluated season to
the end of his 3rd year. The accuracy of this section allows front office
personnel to make decisions on players long before the rest of the league
understands what they may or may not have. The players rookie and 2nd season
are at the bottom of this page. |
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Level of
Accuracy takes into consideration the
total of all categories and the accuracy of each category. |
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Total of the
Categories |
91.7% |
Avg of each Category |
86.1% |
Total Accuracy |
88.9% |
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Predicted
Stats are done during the players final season in collegiate basketball. The
players stats for Pts, Reb, Ast, Blocks, Steals, turnovers, and FGpct are all
taken into predictive measures. Predicted Values must be adjusted after 3rd
year to Pace of Play, and Team Wins. |
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Predicted
Stats |
2006.0 |
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ACTUAL
STATS |
2008-09 |
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MP |
37.5 |
99.5 |
37.3 |
MP |
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Pts
Scored |
19.82 |
95.3 |
18.90 |
Pts
Scored |
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Rebounds |
6.28 |
87.6 |
5.50 |
Rebounds |
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Assist |
2.34 |
72.6 |
1.70 |
Assist |
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Blocks |
0.78 |
89.9 |
0.70 |
Blocks |
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PREDICTION
taken from year |
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2006 |
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Steals |
1.80 |
66.7 |
1.20 |
Steals |
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ACTUAL STATS
From NBA Season |
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2008-09 |
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Turnovers |
2.36 |
90.9 |
2.60 |
Turnovers |
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33.39 |
33.39 |
88.9 |
30.60 |
30.60 |
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Total Accuracy |
0.00 |
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Contract
Evaluation |
How to Video Link |
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The contract
evaluation and forecasting is what actually open the first door for me and it
became my so called calling card. Contract Evaluation when done on every
player in the NBA allows you to forecast every player from the ones that just
contributed really big for their team to the players on the bench or still in
college. This allowed the front office personnel to many times pull the
trigger on free agents or trades. Understanding that the players value could
be had for far less that his actual output. |
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Contract
Forecast |
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Actual
Contract |
GMs
have a great responsibility in understanding a players current and future
value. When you understand a players value years before he reaches contract
many angles of how to utilize that player can be brought to the table. |
92.6% |
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Contract
Forecast |
1st
option |
2nd Option |
yr/Adj |
ACTUAL
CONTRACT |
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Contract
Per Year |
15.1 |
15.3 |
16.5 |
Contract Per Year |
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Contract
Term |
5 |
5 |
5 |
Contract Term |
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Total |
75.6 |
75.6 |
82.3 |
Total |
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Contract Notes: |
Memphis
initially offered less but found themselves in a bidding war and had to
overpay to keep its star player. This is very dangerous and usually leads to
regret unless the player continues to grow. |
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5 |
Forecasting
the amount of shots and where they will take place on the floor |
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Accuracy |
95.4% |
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If this next
phase does not drop your jaw continue to scan through all the players and
look at its level of consistency. Then go flip on a college basketball game
and try to compute in 3 years within an acceptable difference what that
player will score, how often he will shoot, what percentage his shot will be
at and most importantly when given the space and oppurtunity what part of the
floor will he look for his shot. |
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Level of
Accuracy takes into consideration the
total of all categories and the accuracy of each category. |
Average of all Categories |
99.3% |
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FG%
Accuracy |
98.6% |
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FGA Accuracy |
99.4% |
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2pt FG%
Accuracy |
99.7% |
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Pt Accuracy |
99.7% |
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Predicted
FG % |
45.94 |
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Predicted FGA |
15.90 |
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Predict 2pt FG% |
47.45 |
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Pred. Pts Scored |
19.8 |
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Actual
FG % |
45.30 |
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Actual FGA |
16.00 |
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Actual 2pt FG% |
47.29 |
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Actual Pts |
18.8 |
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Projected
Shot Amounts and Projected Locations Breakdown |
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Shots
Attempted |
Free Throws |
Shots 0-7' |
Shots 8'-15' |
16'-22' |
23'+ |
FGA |
FG% |
2ptFG% |
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Projection
of FGA |
6.5 |
4.50 |
6.20 |
3.70 |
1.50 |
15.90 |
45.94 |
47.45 |
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Projection
of FGM |
4.7 |
2.14 |
2.94 |
1.75 |
0.47 |
7.30 |
Forecasted Total Pts |
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Percentage |
73.3 |
47.45 |
47.4 |
47.45 |
31.47 |
45.9 |
19.83 |
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Actual Shot
Amounts and its Locations |
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Shots
Made |
Free Throws |
Shots 0-7' |
Shots 8'-15' |
16'-22' |
23'+ |
FGA |
FG% |
2ptFG% |
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Actual
FGA |
4.4 |
2.31 |
6.09 |
4.50 |
3.10 |
16.00 |
45.30 |
47.29 |
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Actual
FGM |
3.3 |
1.18 |
3.36 |
1.56 |
1.10 |
7.20 |
Actual Pts Scored |
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Shooting
Pct |
75.0 |
51.11 |
55.1 |
34.64 |
35.55 |
45.0 |
18.80 |
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Forecasted
Shot Location by pct. |
Notes |
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Beta
Projection |
Paint |
Outside |
3pt |
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The
following is a predicted forecast of Paint Outside and 3 pt "pts
made" a player will take in his 3rd/4th season of NBA |
33.5% |
47.2% |
19.4% |
The
reasoning for the comparable chart is to show where a players natural habit
and tendacies would place him on the court in conjunction to his position.
(this has been crossed with the Range, Volume, Position,Injury, Win, and
Matchup formulas to create this ideal formula for a player to play at his
designated position. At this point you can begin to look at all the shot
placements categories and get an idea of how engaged the player is or should
be during the course of a game. |
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Actual Shot Location by Pct. |
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Accuracy |
Paint |
Outside |
3pt |
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96.0% |
38.5% |
42.1% |
19.4% |
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ACTUAL
YEAR of Data |
2008-09 |
ACTUAL YEAR of Data |
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6 |
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Forecasted
Summer League total vs. Actual |
How
to Video Link |
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The accuracy
of the Forecasted Summer League is a bonus because in many ways this is
simply an organized pickup game. 2nd and 3rd year players tend to feast here
statistically, but what we are looking for is to see if we are the right
track with this players early development into the NBA. Normally if this is better than 75%
accurate you can bet the 3rd year accuracy is going to be right on the money. |
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Level of
Accuracy takes into consideration the
total of all categories and the accuracy of each category. |
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Total of the
Categories |
94.0% |
Avg of each Category |
93.2% |
Total Accuracy |
93.6% |
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Summer
League Notes |
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Per min |
Total |
Categories |
Actual Summer
Stats |
2007-2008 |
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Grade |
93.6% |
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Originally
the Summer League Stats were not accurately done, especially in the assist
department. It has however, improved greatly over the last couple years. The
Summer league gives you an early idea of the type of player drafted, but it
really works well when rookies are matched up against 2nd - 3rd year players. |
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34.8 |
32.80 |
Min Played |
32.8 |
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MP |
94% |
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0.587 |
19.2 |
Pts Scored |
18.20 |
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Pts Scored |
95% |
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0.179 |
5.9 |
Rebounds |
5.60 |
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0.049 |
1.6 |
Assist |
1.80 |
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Rebounds |
95% |
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0.032 |
1.1 |
Blocks |
0.60 |
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0.053 |
1.7 |
Steals |
1.40 |
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Assist |
89% |
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0.056 |
1.8 |
Turnovers |
1.80 |
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Total |
66.17 |
Totals |
62.20 |
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Totals |
94.0% |
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7 |
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Forecasted
D-League Totals |
How to
Video Link |
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D-League
Notes |
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FORECAST |
0 |
Adj |
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D-LEAGUE |
0 |
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Grade |
0.0% |
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If
the NBA is the A-League several overseas leagues could be considered B, and
C. The NBA has basically a 4th tier league where it treats its players
financially like a 4th tier. In turn you get a saturation of players out for
their own and not in a team concept. Until the NBA "Makes" the
D-League a seriously organized place this league is basically a pick-up style
basketball league. |
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MP |
38.5 |
1.0 |
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MP |
0 |
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MP |
0% |
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Pts
Scored |
0.6 |
0.6 |
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Pts Scored |
0 |
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Pts
Scored |
0% |
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Rebounds |
0.2 |
0.2 |
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Rebounds |
0 |
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Assist |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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Assist |
0 |
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Rebounds |
0% |
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Blocks |
0.0 |
0.0 |
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Blocks |
0 |
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Steals |
0.1 |
0.1 |
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Steals |
0 |
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Assist |
0% |
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Turnovers |
0.1 |
0.1 |
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Turnovers |
0 |
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Total |
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0.96 |
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Total |
0.00 |
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Total |
0.0% |
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8 |
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SCOUTING
REPORT CARD / Breakdown Analysis |
How to
Video Link |
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SCOUTING
GRADES - (This is a breakdown of data analysis) |
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Here is a
Evaluation Grading System where all areas are combined. If you are a front
office person then you should be able to grade your work in the finest of
details vs. the actual output of the players you have been scouting or that
are on your team. |
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Projected Draft Value |
89.1 |
1 |
This measure
of accuracy is the forecasted vs. actual players production at the NBA
Level. |
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Projected
Mp |
99.5 |
1 |
Sometimes this
can be off due to the depth or concept a NBA team runs, |
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NBA -
3rd season |
92.8 |
1 |
This is the
players contract season in most cases and the measure of a GMs success |
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NBA -
2nd season |
89.8 |
1 |
This is the
year things begin to take shape some players have a lower ceiling and hit
this area immediately |
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NBA -
1st Season |
95.3 |
1 |
Rookie seasons
are tough for players on high pct winning teams but they will get their turn |
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Capology
Report |
91.9 |
1 |
Knowing a
players financial possibilities while he is still in college really helps in
drafting, trading, and free agency. |
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NBA
Summer League |
93.3 |
1 |
Grain of salt
but sometimes that grain really helps define the path you have forecasted for
the player |
|
|
|
|
|
|
D-League |
0.0 |
0 |
Turn on the
stat machines |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Forecasting
Players Shooting |
99.3 |
1 |
Basically very
vital if production is going to be correct |
|
|
|
|
|
|
All
Categories Combined |
93.9 |
8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
14 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
In the area
below, I simply added some of the categories so you could see how I came up
with the accuracy numbers. |
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|
|
Contract Season |
Minus |
|
Plus |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MP |
0.00 |
1 |
0.99 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pts
Scored |
0.95 |
1 |
0.00 |
1 |
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Rebounds |
0.88 |
1 |
0.00 |
1 |
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|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Assist |
0.73 |
1 |
0.00 |
1 |
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|
|
|
|
|
|
Blocks |
0.90 |
1 |
0.00 |
1 |
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|
Steals |
0.67 |
1 |
0.00 |
1 |
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|
|
|
Turnovers |
0.00 |
1 |
0.91 |
1 |
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|
|
|
Sub-Total
A |
4.12 |
## |
1.90 |
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
Detail |
86.1% |
|
NBA Contract
Season Evaluation NOTES |
|
|
|
|
Sub-Total
B |
91.7% |
|
0.0% |
|
Correctly
Evaluated |
7 |
of |
7 |
Categories |
|
|
|
|
|
91.7% |
|
for an
astounishing pct |
100.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
Forecasted NBA Stats |
92.76% |
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Waiting on NBA
Games |
|
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|
|
Summer League |
Minus |
|
Plus |
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pts Scored |
0.00 |
1 |
0.95 |
1 |
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rebounds |
0.00 |
1 |
0.95 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assist |
0.89 |
1 |
0.00 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Blocks |
0.00 |
1 |
0.57 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Steals |
0.00 |
1 |
0.80 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turnovers |
0.00 |
1 |
0.98 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sub-Total
A |
0.89 |
## |
4.24 |
6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
Detail |
85.4% |
|
SUMMER LEAGUE
TOTALS |
|
|
|
|
Sub-Total
B |
0.0% |
|
94.0% |
|
Correctly
Evaluated |
6 |
of |
6 |
Categories |
|
|
|
|
|
94.0% |
|
for an
astounishing pct |
100.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
Forecasted NBA Stats |
93.32% |
|
Players stats
are what we forecasted for him from the time he was in college |
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
D- League |
Minus |
|
Plus |
|
|
CAPOLOGY |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Pts
Scored |
0.00 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
|
CAPOLOGY |
Minus |
|
Plus |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rebounds |
0.00 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
|
Contract Per
Year |
0.00 |
|
0.92 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assist |
0.00 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
|
Total
Forecasted NBA Salary |
91.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Blocks |
0.00 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
|
CAPOLOGY Argument |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Steals |
0.00 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
|
A
GMs most important time is to understand the players on every teams value and
those in college. Many times a players role can be defined better on a new
team. This program takes into account his value. |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turnovers |
0.00 |
0 |
0.00 |
0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sub-Total
A |
0.00 |
## |
0.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
Detail |
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Sub-Total
B |
0.0% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
Forecasted NBA Stats |
0.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Correctly
Evaluated |
0 |
of |
0.001 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
for an
assessed Evaluation pct of |
0.00% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
9 |
|
Predicted
Stats vs. Rookie Year |
How to Video Link |
|
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|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Level of
Accuracy takes into consideration the
total of all categories and the accuracy of each category. |
|
|
|
|
Total of the
Categories |
86.6% |
Avg of each Category |
93.7% |
Total Accuracy |
90.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted
Stats are done during the players final season in collegiate basketball. The
players stats for Pts, Reb, Ast, Blocks, Steals, turnovers, and FGpct are all
taken into predictive measures. Predicted Values must be adjusted after 3rd
year to Pace of Play, and Team Wins. |
|
Predicted Stats |
Per Min |
Adj |
Per 36 |
ACTUAL
STATS |
|
Grade |
95.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MP |
27.1 |
27.0 |
36.0 |
MP |
27 |
|
MP |
100% |
|
|
|
|
|
Pts
Scored |
0.50 |
13.56 |
18.08 |
Pts
Scored |
10.80 |
|
Pts
Scored |
80% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rebounds |
0.17 |
4.53 |
6.04 |
Rebounds |
4.50 |
|
Rebounds |
99% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assist |
0.05 |
1.40 |
1.86 |
Assist |
1.30 |
|
Assist |
93% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Blocks |
0.02 |
0.61 |
0.82 |
Blocks |
0.90 |
|
Turnovers |
97% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PREDICTION
taken from year |
|
|
Total |
86.6% |
|
|
|
|
2006 |
|
Steals |
0.05 |
1.37 |
1.82 |
Steals |
0.90 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ACTUAL STATS
From NBA Season |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2006-07 |
|
Turnovers |
0.07 |
1.86 |
2.48 |
Turnovers |
1.80 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
0.9 |
23.3 |
31.1 |
Total |
20.20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.86 |
23.33 |
|
|
20.20 |
0.00 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
10 |
|
Predicted
Stats vs. Players 2nd Year in NBA |
How to
Video Link |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Level of
Accuracy takes into consideration the
total of all categories and the accuracy of each category. |
|
|
|
|
Total of the
Categories |
94.3% |
Avg of each Category |
89.4% |
Total Accuracy |
91.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Predicted
Stats are done during the players final season in collegiate basketball. The
players stats for Pts, Reb, Ast, Blocks, Steals, turnovers, and FGpct are all
taken into predictive measures. Predicted Values must be adjusted after 3rd
year to Pace of Play, and Team Wins. |
|
Predicted Stats |
Predict
minutes |
Per 36 |
ACTUAL
STATS |
|
Grade |
89.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MP |
31.9 |
37.0 |
36.0 |
MP |
37 |
|
MP |
86% |
|
|
|
|
|
Pts
Scored |
0.56 |
20.65 |
20.09 |
Pts
Scored |
20.10 |
|
Pts
Scored |
97% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rebounds |
0.18 |
6.54 |
6.36 |
Rebounds |
6.20 |
|
Rebounds |
95% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assist |
0.07 |
2.55 |
2.48 |
Assist |
2.00 |
|
Assist |
78% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Blocks |
0.02 |
0.84 |
0.82 |
Blocks |
1.00 |
|
Turnovers |
90% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PREDICTION
taken from year |
|
|
Total |
94.3% |
|
|
|
|
2006 |
|
Steals |
0.05 |
1.87 |
1.82 |
Steals |
1.40 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ACTUAL STATS
From NBA Season |
|
Best Case |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2007-08 |
|
Turnovers |
0.07 |
2.55 |
2.48 |
Turnovers |
2.30 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
0.9 |
35.0 |
34.1 |
Total |
33.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.95 |
35.00 |
|
|
33.00 |
0.00 |
|
|
|
|
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|
11 |
|
Season Prior
to Player declaring for Draft |
How to
Video Link |
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|
Player Name |
Position |
College Season |
Height |
LBs |
Vertical |
|
|
|
|
Rudy Gay |
Shooting Guard |
Freshman |
#REF! |
-9 |
222 |
40.5 |
|
|
|
|
Initial
Scouting Report |
Connecticut |
Score |
82.9 |
Draft Value |
2 |
|
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|
|
|
|
Predicted
Stats are done during the players final season in collegiate basketball. The
players stats for Pts, Reb, Ast, Blocks, Steals, turnovers, and FGpct are all
taken into predictive measures. Predicted Values must be adjusted after 3rd
year to Pace of Play, and Team Wins. |
|
Predicted Stats |
Predict
minutes |
Per 36 |
ACTUAL STATS |
|
Grade |
93.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
MP |
37.5 |
37.5 |
36.0 |
MP |
37.3 |
|
MP |
99% |
|
|
|
|
|
Pts
Scored |
0.55 |
20.65 |
19.82 |
Pts
Scored |
18.90 |
|
Pts
Scored |
92% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Rebounds |
0.17 |
6.54 |
6.28 |
Rebounds |
5.50 |
|
Rebounds |
84% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Assist |
0.07 |
2.55 |
2.45 |
Assist |
1.70 |
|
Assist |
67% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Blocks |
0.02 |
0.84 |
0.81 |
Blocks |
0.70 |
|
Turnovers |
98% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PREDICTION
taken from year |
|
|
Total |
87.4% |
|
|
|
|
2006 |
|
Steals |
0.05 |
1.87 |
1.80 |
Steals |
1.20 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ACTUAL STATS
From NBA Season |
|
Best Case |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
2008-09 |
|
Turnovers |
0.07 |
2.55 |
2.45 |
Turnovers |
2.60 |
1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total |
0.9 |
35.0 |
33.6 |
Total |
30.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
0.93 |
35.00 |
33.60 |
|
30.60 |
0.00 |
|
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