BASIC4= Basketball Analytical Science of Individual Categorical Forecasting                                                        prepard by: Joe Duffel      
  Rudy Gay Percentage of accuracy Based on last 10 yrs players average draft value is:      
  92.8% 2      
                                   
  COLLEGIATE INFO          
  School Connecticut Height 6 -9 Pts 15.2          
  Year 2006 Lbs. 222 Reb 6.4          
  College Year Freshman Wingspan 87.0 Assist 2.1          
  Position Shooting Guard Vertical 40.5 Blocks 1.6          
                                                                       contact info:   admin@scoutingthenba.com      
                                   
  1 NBA Draft Scouting Report How to Video  Link      
                                   
  Based on last 10 yrs players average draft value is: 2    Evaluation Score                                           (1-100)  81          
                                   
                                   
  Forecasting what the players Per 36 will look like by his Contract Season      
  Projection from Projected MP Projected Pts Proj Reb Assist Turnovers Blocks Steals Total      
  2006 37.50 19.87 6.28 2.45 2.45 0.81 1.80 81.10      
  Actual Stats from yr  MP  Pts Rebounds Assist Turnovers Blocks Steals Total      
  2008-09 37.30 20.39 5.93 1.83 2.80 0.76 1.29 72.26      
  Difference between Prediction / Actual Stats 0.2 -0.5 0.3 0.6 -0.36 0.1 0.5 8.8      
  Pct of Accuracy 99.5 97.5 94.5 74.8 87.2 93.4 72.0 89.1      
                                   
  Scale below is listed between 1- 100              
  Evaluation Score Per 36 Total Projected MP Athleticism + Pos Matchup Risk Factor Defensive Match              
  81 81.1 84.38 100.78 1% 98.1              
                                   
                                   
  2 DRAFT EVALUATION NOTES:      
                                   
                                   
  Draft Reflection - 3yrs from draft date   Data not available on-line      
 
 
                               
  3 Forecasted Stats  vs. Actual NBA Stats How to Video  Link      
                                   
  Forecasted Stats is where the stats are forecasted from the players evaluated season to the end of his 3rd year. The accuracy of this section allows front office personnel to make decisions on players long before the rest of the league understands what they may or may not have. The players rookie and 2nd season are at the bottom of this page.      
                                   
  Level of Accuracy takes into consideration the  total of all categories and the accuracy of each category.      
  Total of the Categories 91.7% Avg of each Category 86.1% Total Accuracy 88.9%      
                                   
  Predicted Stats are done during the players final season in collegiate basketball. The players stats for Pts, Reb, Ast, Blocks, Steals, turnovers, and FGpct are all taken into predictive measures. Predicted Values must be adjusted after 3rd year to Pace of Play, and Team Wins.   Predicted Stats   2006.0   ACTUAL STATS 2008-09          
               
    MP 37.5 99.5 37.3 MP          
    Pts Scored 19.82 95.3 18.90 Pts Scored          
             
    Rebounds 6.28 87.6 5.50 Rebounds          
             
    Assist 2.34 72.6 1.70 Assist          
             
    Blocks 0.78 89.9 0.70 Blocks          
             
  PREDICTION taken from year            
  2006   Steals 1.80 66.7 1.20 Steals          
             
  ACTUAL STATS From NBA Season            
  2008-09   Turnovers 2.36 90.9 2.60 Turnovers          
             
      33.39 33.39 88.9 30.60 30.60                
    Total Accuracy 0.00              
                                   
  4   Contract Evaluation  How to Video  Link      
                                   
  The contract evaluation and forecasting is what actually open the first door for me and it became my so called calling card. Contract Evaluation when done on every player in the NBA allows you to forecast every player from the ones that just contributed really big for their team to the players on the bench or still in college. This allowed the front office personnel to many times pull the trigger on free agents or trades. Understanding that the players value could be had for far less that his actual output.      
                                   
  Contract Forecast   Actual Contract  GMs have a great responsibility in understanding a players current and future value. When you understand a players value years before he reaches contract many angles of how to utilize that player can be brought to the table. 92.6%      
       
  Contract Forecast 1st option 2nd Option yr/Adj ACTUAL CONTRACT      
       
  Contract Per Year 15.1 15.3 16.5 Contract Per Year      
  Contract Term 5 5 5 Contract Term      
  Total 75.6 75.6 82.3 Total      
                                   
  Contract Notes: Memphis initially offered less but found themselves in a bidding war and had to overpay to keep its star player. This is very dangerous and usually leads to regret unless the player continues to grow.      
                                   
  5 Forecasting the amount of shots and where they will take place on the floor   Accuracy 95.4%      
         
                                   
  If this next phase does not drop your jaw continue to scan through all the players and look at its level of consistency. Then go flip on a college basketball game and try to compute in 3 years within an acceptable difference what that player will score, how often he will shoot, what percentage his shot will be at and most importantly when given the space and oppurtunity what part of the floor will he look for his shot.       
                                   
  Level of Accuracy takes into consideration the  total of all categories and the accuracy of each category. Average of all Categories 99.3%      
         
  FG% Accuracy 98.6%   FGA Accuracy 99.4%    2pt FG% Accuracy 99.7%   Pt Accuracy 99.7%      
  Predicted FG % 45.94   Predicted FGA 15.90   Predict 2pt FG% 47.45   Pred. Pts Scored 19.8      
  Actual FG % 45.30   Actual FGA 16.00   Actual 2pt FG% 47.29   Actual Pts 18.8      
                                   
  Projected Shot Amounts and Projected Locations Breakdown      
  Shots Attempted Free Throws Shots 0-7' Shots 8'-15' 16'-22' 23'+ FGA FG% 2ptFG%      
  Projection of FGA 6.5 4.50 6.20 3.70 1.50 15.90 45.94 47.45      
  Projection of FGM 4.7 2.14 2.94 1.75 0.47 7.30 Forecasted Total Pts      
  Percentage 73.3 47.45 47.4 47.45 31.47 45.9 19.83      
                                   
  Actual Shot Amounts and its Locations      
  Shots Made Free Throws Shots 0-7' Shots 8'-15' 16'-22' 23'+ FGA FG% 2ptFG%      
  Actual FGA 4.4 2.31 6.09 4.50 3.10 16.00 45.30 47.29      
  Actual FGM 3.3 1.18 3.36 1.56 1.10 7.20 Actual Pts Scored      
  Shooting Pct 75.0 51.11 55.1 34.64 35.55 45.0 18.80      
                                   
                                   
  Forecasted Shot Location by pct. Notes            
  Beta Projection Paint Outside 3pt            
  The following is a predicted forecast of Paint Outside and 3 pt "pts made" a player will take in his 3rd/4th season of NBA 33.5% 47.2% 19.4% The reasoning for the comparable chart is to show where a players natural habit and tendacies would place him on the court in conjunction to his position. (this has been crossed with the Range, Volume, Position,Injury, Win, and Matchup formulas to create this ideal formula for a player to play at his designated position. At this point you can begin to look at all the shot placements categories and get an idea of how engaged the player is or should be during the course of a game.            
             
             
  Actual Shot Location by Pct.            
  Accuracy  Paint Outside 3pt            
  96.0% 38.5% 42.1% 19.4%            
             
             
  ACTUAL YEAR of Data 2008-09 ACTUAL YEAR of Data            
                                   
  6   Forecasted Summer League total vs. Actual How to Video  Link      
         
                                   
  The accuracy of the Forecasted Summer League is a bonus because in many ways this is simply an organized pickup game. 2nd and 3rd year players tend to feast here statistically, but what we are looking for is to see if we are the right track with this players early development into the NBA.  Normally if this is better than 75% accurate you can bet the 3rd year accuracy is going to be right on the money.      
                                   
  Level of Accuracy takes into consideration the  total of all categories and the accuracy of each category.      
  Total of the Categories 94.0% Avg of each Category 93.2% Total Accuracy 93.6%      
                                   
  Summer League Notes   Per min Total Categories Actual Summer Stats 2007-2008   Grade 93.6%      
           
  Originally the Summer League Stats were not accurately done, especially in the assist department. It has however, improved greatly over the last couple years. The Summer league gives you an early idea of the type of player drafted, but it really works well when rookies are matched up against 2nd - 3rd year players.   34.8 32.80 Min Played 32.8   MP 94%      
    0.587 19.2  Pts Scored 18.20   Pts Scored 95%      
    0.179 5.9 Rebounds 5.60        
    0.049 1.6 Assist  1.80   Rebounds 95%      
    0.032 1.1  Blocks 0.60        
    0.053 1.7  Steals 1.40   Assist 89%      
    0.056 1.8 Turnovers 1.80        
      Total 66.17 Totals 62.20   Totals 94.0%      
                                   
  7   Forecasted D-League Totals How to Video  Link      
                                   
  D-League Notes   FORECAST 0 Adj   D-LEAGUE 0   Grade 0.0%      
             
  If the NBA is the A-League several overseas leagues could be considered B, and C. The NBA has basically a 4th tier league where it treats its players financially like a 4th tier. In turn you get a saturation of players out for their own and not in a team concept. Until the NBA "Makes" the D-League a seriously organized place this league is basically a pick-up style basketball league.    MP 38.5 1.0   MP 0   MP 0%      
    Pts Scored 0.6 0.6   Pts Scored 0   Pts Scored 0%      
    Rebounds 0.2 0.2   Rebounds 0        
    Assist  0.0 0.0   Assist  0   Rebounds 0%      
    Blocks 0.0 0.0   Blocks 0        
    Steals 0.1 0.1   Steals 0   Assist 0%      
    Turnovers 0.1 0.1   Turnovers 0        
      Total   0.96   Total 0.00   Total 0.0%      
                       
                                   
  8   SCOUTING REPORT CARD / Breakdown Analysis How to Video  Link      
                                   
                                   
  SCOUTING GRADES - (This is a breakdown of data analysis)          
  Here is a Evaluation Grading System where all areas are combined. If you are a front office person then you should be able to grade your work in the finest of details vs. the actual output of the players you have been scouting or that are on your team.          
  Projected Draft Value 89.1 1 This measure of accuracy is the forecasted vs. actual players production at the NBA Level.           
  Projected Mp 99.5 1 Sometimes this can be off due to the depth or concept a NBA team runs,          
  NBA - 3rd season 92.8 1 This is the players contract season in most cases and the measure of a GMs success          
  NBA - 2nd season 89.8 1 This is the year things begin to take shape some players have a lower ceiling and hit this area immediately          
  NBA - 1st Season 95.3 1 Rookie seasons are tough for players on high pct winning teams but they will get their turn          
  Capology Report  91.9 1 Knowing a players financial possibilities while he is still in college really helps in drafting, trading, and free agency.          
  NBA Summer League 93.3 1 Grain of salt but sometimes that grain really helps define the path you have forecasted for the player          
  D-League 0.0 0 Turn on the stat machines           
  Forecasting Players Shooting 99.3 1 Basically very vital if production is going to be correct          
  All Categories Combined 93.9 8            
      14                            
  In the area below, I simply added some of the categories so you could see how I came up with the accuracy numbers.          
                                   
  Contract Season Minus   Plus                          
  MP 0.00 1 0.99 1                        
  Pts Scored 0.95 1 0.00 1                        
  Rebounds 0.88 1 0.00 1                        
  Assist 0.73 1 0.00 1                        
  Blocks 0.90 1 0.00 1                        
  Steals 0.67 1 0.00 1                        
  Turnovers 0.00 1 0.91 1                        
  Sub-Total A 4.12 ## 1.90                          
  Total Detail 86.1%   NBA Contract Season Evaluation NOTES      
  Sub-Total B 91.7%   0.0%   Correctly Evaluated 7 of 7 Categories      
    91.7%   for an astounishing pct 100.00%            
  Total Forecasted NBA Stats 92.76%                          
    Waiting on NBA Games                          
  Summer League Minus   Plus                          
  Pts Scored 0.00 1 0.95 1                        
  Rebounds 0.00 1 0.95 1                        
  Assist 0.89 1 0.00 1                        
  Blocks 0.00 1 0.57 1                        
  Steals 0.00 1 0.80 1                        
  Turnovers 0.00 1 0.98 1                        
  Sub-Total A 0.89 ## 4.24 6                        
  Total Detail 85.4%   SUMMER LEAGUE TOTALS      
  Sub-Total B 0.0%   94.0%   Correctly Evaluated  6 of 6 Categories      
    94.0%   for an astounishing pct 100.00%            
  Total Forecasted NBA Stats 93.32%   Players stats are what we forecasted for him from the time he was in college      
                                   
  D- League Minus   Plus     CAPOLOGY            
  Pts Scored 0.00 0 0.00 0   CAPOLOGY Minus   Plus            
  Rebounds 0.00 0 0.00 0   Contract Per Year 0.00   0.92            
  Assist 0.00 0 0.00 0   Total Forecasted NBA Salary 91.9%            
  Blocks 0.00 0 0.00 0   CAPOLOGY  Argument            
  Steals 0.00 0 0.00 0   A GMs most important time is to understand the players on every teams value and those in college. Many times a players role can be defined better on a new team. This program takes into account his value.            
  Turnovers 0.00 0 0.00 0              
  Sub-Total A 0.00 ## 0.00                
  Total Detail 0.0%                          
  Sub-Total B 0.0%   0.0%                          
    0.0%                          
  Total Forecasted NBA Stats 0.00%                          
  Correctly Evaluated  0 of 0.001                      
  for an assessed Evaluation pct of 0.00%                      
                                   
  9   Predicted Stats vs. Rookie Year How to Video  Link      
                                   
                                   
  Level of Accuracy takes into consideration the  total of all categories and the accuracy of each category.      
  Total of the Categories 86.6% Avg of each Category 93.7% Total Accuracy 90.1%      
                                   
  Predicted Stats are done during the players final season in collegiate basketball. The players stats for Pts, Reb, Ast, Blocks, Steals, turnovers, and FGpct are all taken into predictive measures. Predicted Values must be adjusted after 3rd year to Pace of Play, and Team Wins.   Predicted Stats Per Min Adj Per 36 ACTUAL STATS   Grade 95.3%      
           
    MP 27.1 27.0 36.0 MP 27   MP 100%      
    Pts Scored 0.50 13.56 18.08 Pts Scored 10.80   Pts Scored 80%      
           
    Rebounds 0.17 4.53 6.04 Rebounds 4.50   Rebounds 99%      
           
    Assist 0.05 1.40 1.86 Assist 1.30   Assist 93%      
           
    Blocks 0.02 0.61 0.82 Blocks 0.90   Turnovers 97%      
           
  PREDICTION taken from year     Total 86.6%      
  2006   Steals 0.05 1.37 1.82 Steals 0.90        
                   
  ACTUAL STATS From NBA Season                  
  2006-07   Turnovers 0.07 1.86 2.48 Turnovers 1.80                
                   
    Total 0.9 23.3 31.1 Total 20.20                
      0.86 23.33     20.20 0.00              
                                   
                                   
  10   Predicted Stats vs. Players 2nd Year in NBA How to Video  Link      
                                   
  Level of Accuracy takes into consideration the  total of all categories and the accuracy of each category.      
  Total of the Categories 94.3% Avg of each Category 89.4% Total Accuracy 91.8%      
                                   
  Predicted Stats are done during the players final season in collegiate basketball. The players stats for Pts, Reb, Ast, Blocks, Steals, turnovers, and FGpct are all taken into predictive measures. Predicted Values must be adjusted after 3rd year to Pace of Play, and Team Wins.   Predicted Stats Predict minutes Per 36 ACTUAL STATS   Grade 89.8%      
           
    MP 31.9 37.0 36.0 MP 37   MP 86%      
    Pts Scored 0.56 20.65 20.09 Pts Scored 20.10   Pts Scored 97%      
           
    Rebounds 0.18 6.54 6.36 Rebounds 6.20   Rebounds 95%      
           
    Assist 0.07 2.55 2.48 Assist 2.00   Assist 78%      
           
    Blocks 0.02 0.84 0.82 Blocks 1.00   Turnovers 90%      
           
  PREDICTION taken from year     Total 94.3%      
  2006   Steals 0.05 1.87 1.82 Steals 1.40        
                   
  ACTUAL STATS From NBA Season   Best Case              
  2007-08   Turnovers 0.07 2.55 2.48 Turnovers 2.30 1              
                   
    Total 0.9 35.0 34.1 Total 33.0                
      0.95 35.00     33.00 0.00              
                                   
                                   
  11   Season Prior to Player declaring for Draft How to Video  Link      
                                   
  Player Name Position College Season Height LBs Vertical      
  Rudy Gay Shooting Guard Freshman #REF! -9 222 40.5      
  Initial Scouting Report Connecticut Score 82.9 Draft Value 2      
                                   
  Predicted Stats are done during the players final season in collegiate basketball. The players stats for Pts, Reb, Ast, Blocks, Steals, turnovers, and FGpct are all taken into predictive measures. Predicted Values must be adjusted after 3rd year to Pace of Play, and Team Wins.   Predicted Stats Predict minutes Per 36 ACTUAL STATS   Grade 93.0%      
           
    MP 37.5 37.5 36.0 MP 37.3   MP 99%      
    Pts Scored 0.55 20.65 19.82 Pts Scored 18.90   Pts Scored 92%      
           
    Rebounds 0.17 6.54 6.28 Rebounds 5.50   Rebounds 84%      
           
    Assist 0.07 2.55 2.45 Assist 1.70   Assist 67%      
           
    Blocks 0.02 0.84 0.81 Blocks 0.70   Turnovers 98%      
           
  PREDICTION taken from year     Total 87.4%      
  2006   Steals 0.05 1.87 1.80 Steals 1.20        
                   
  ACTUAL STATS From NBA Season   Best Case              
  2008-09   Turnovers 0.07 2.55 2.45 Turnovers 2.60 1              
                   
    Total 0.9 35.0 33.6 Total 30.6                
      0.93 35.00 33.60   30.60 0.00