BASIC4= Basketball Analytical Science of Individual Categorical Forecasting                                                        prepard by: Joe Duffel
	Rudy Gay							Percentage of accuracy		Based on last 10 yrs players average draft value is:
								92.8%		2
	COLLEGIATE INFO
	School	Connecticut			Height		6	-9	Pts		15.2
	Year	2006			Lbs.		222		Reb		6.4
	College Year	Freshman			Wingspan		87.0		Assist		2.1
	Position	Shooting Guard			Vertical		40.5		Blocks		1.6
							contact info:   admin@scoutingthenba.com
	1	NBA Draft Scouting Report										How to Video  Link
	Based on last 10 yrs players average draft value is:		2			Evaluation Score                                           (1-100)			81
	Forecasting what the players Per 36 will look like by his Contract Season
	Projection from	Projected MP		Projected Pts	Proj Reb		Assist	Turnovers	Blocks		Steals	Total
	2006	37.50		19.87	6.28		2.45	2.45	0.81		1.80	81.10
	Actual Stats from yr	MP		Pts	Rebounds		Assist	Turnovers	Blocks		Steals	Total
	2008-09	37.30		20.39	5.93		1.83	2.80	0.76		1.29	72.26
	Difference between Prediction / Actual Stats	0.2		-0.5	0.3		0.6	-0.36	0.1		0.5	8.8
	Pct of Accuracy	99.5		97.5	94.5		74.8	87.2	93.4		72.0	89.1
	Scale below is listed between 1- 100
	Evaluation Score	Per 36 Total		Projected MP	Athleticism + Pos Matchup			Risk Factor	Defensive Match
	81	81.1		84.38	100.78			1%	98.1
	2	DRAFT EVALUATION NOTES:
	Draft Reflection - 3yrs from draft date			Data not available on-line
	3	Forecasted Stats  vs. Actual NBA Stats										How to Video  Link
	Forecasted Stats is where the stats are forecasted from the players evaluated season to the end of his 3rd year. The accuracy of this section allows front office personnel to make decisions on players long before the rest of the league understands what they may or may not have. The players rookie and 2nd season are at the bottom of this page.
	Level of Accuracy takes into consideration the  total of all categories and the accuracy of each category.
	Total of the Categories		91.7%		Avg of each Category			86.1%		Total Accuracy			88.9%
	Predicted Stats are done during the players final season in collegiate basketball. The players stats for Pts, Reb, Ast, Blocks, Steals, turnovers, and FGpct are all taken into predictive measures. Predicted Values must be adjusted after 3rd year to Pace of Play, and Team Wins.			Predicted Stats		2006.0		ACTUAL STATS		2008-09
				MP	37.5		99.5	37.3		MP
				Pts Scored	19.82		95.3	18.90		Pts Scored
				Rebounds	6.28		87.6	5.50		Rebounds
				Assist	2.34		72.6	1.70		Assist
				Blocks	0.78		89.9	0.70		Blocks
	PREDICTION taken from year
	2006			Steals	1.80		66.7	1.20		Steals
	ACTUAL STATS From NBA Season
	2008-09			Turnovers	2.36		90.9	2.60		Turnovers
					33.39	33.39	88.9	30.60	30.60
				Total Accuracy						0.00
	4			Contract Evaluation								How to Video  Link
	The contract evaluation and forecasting is what actually open the first door for me and it became my so called calling card. Contract Evaluation when done on every player in the NBA allows you to forecast every player from the ones that just contributed really big for their team to the players on the bench or still in college. This allowed the front office personnel to many times pull the trigger on free agents or trades. Understanding that the players value could be had for far less that his actual output.
	Contract Forecast				Actual Contract				GMs have a great responsibility in understanding a players current and future value. When you understand a players value years before he reaches contract many angles of how to utilize that player can be brought to the table.				92.6%
	Contract Forecast	1st option		2nd Option	yr/Adj		ACTUAL CONTRACT
	Contract Per Year	15.1		15.3	16.5		Contract Per Year
	Contract Term	5		5	5		Contract Term
	Total	75.6		75.6	82.3		Total
	Contract Notes:	Memphis initially offered less but found themselves in a bidding war and had to overpay to keep its star player. This is very dangerous and usually leads to regret unless the player continues to grow.
	5	Forecasting the amount of shots and where they will take place on the floor									Accuracy		95.4%
	If this next phase does not drop your jaw continue to scan through all the players and look at its level of consistency. Then go flip on a college basketball game and try to compute in 3 years within an acceptable difference what that player will score, how often he will shoot, what percentage his shot will be at and most importantly when given the space and oppurtunity what part of the floor will he look for his shot.
	Level of Accuracy takes into consideration the  total of all categories and the accuracy of each category.								Average of all Categories			99.3%
	FG% Accuracy	98.6%		FGA Accuracy	99.4%		2pt FG% Accuracy		99.7%		Pt Accuracy		99.7%
	Predicted FG %	45.94		Predicted FGA	15.90		Predict 2pt FG%		47.45		Pred. Pts Scored		19.8
	Actual FG %	45.30		Actual FGA	16.00		Actual 2pt FG%		47.29		Actual Pts		18.8
	Projected Shot Amounts and Projected Locations Breakdown
	Shots Attempted	Free Throws		Shots 0-7'	Shots 8'-15'		16'-22'	23'+	FGA		FG%		2ptFG%
	Projection of FGA	6.5		4.50	6.20		3.70	1.50	15.90		45.94		47.45
	Projection of FGM	4.7		2.14	2.94		1.75	0.47	7.30		Forecasted Total Pts
	Percentage	73.3		47.45	47.4		47.45	31.47	45.9		19.83
	Actual Shot Amounts and its Locations
	Shots Made	Free Throws		Shots 0-7'	Shots 8'-15'		16'-22'	23'+	FGA		FG%		2ptFG%
	Actual FGA	4.4		2.31	6.09		4.50	3.10	16.00		45.30		47.29
	Actual FGM	3.3		1.18	3.36		1.56	1.10	7.20		Actual Pts Scored
	Shooting Pct	75.0		51.11	55.1		34.64	35.55	45.0		18.80
	Forecasted Shot Location by pct.							Notes
	Beta Projection	Paint		Outside		3pt
	The following is a predicted forecast of Paint Outside and 3 pt "pts made" a player will take in his 3rd/4th season of NBA	33.5%		47.2%		19.4%		The reasoning for the comparable chart is to show where a players natural habit and tendacies would place him on the court in conjunction to his position. (this has been crossed with the Range, Volume, Position,Injury, Win, and Matchup formulas to create this ideal formula for a player to play at his designated position. At this point you can begin to look at all the shot placements categories and get an idea of how engaged the player is or should be during the course of a game.
	Actual Shot Location by Pct.
	Accuracy	Paint		Outside		3pt
	96.0%	38.5%		42.1%		19.4%
	ACTUAL YEAR of Data	2008-09						ACTUAL YEAR of Data
	6			Forecasted Summer League total vs. Actual								How to Video  Link
	The accuracy of the Forecasted Summer League is a bonus because in many ways this is simply an organized pickup game. 2nd and 3rd year players tend to feast here statistically, but what we are looking for is to see if we are the right track with this players early development into the NBA.  Normally if this is better than 75% accurate you can bet the 3rd year accuracy is going to be right on the money.
	Level of Accuracy takes into consideration the  total of all categories and the accuracy of each category.
	Total of the Categories		94.0%		Avg of each Category			93.2%		Total Accuracy			93.6%
	Summer League Notes			Per min	Total		Categories	Actual Summer Stats	2007-2008		Grade		93.6%
	Originally the Summer League Stats were not accurately done, especially in the assist department. It has however, improved greatly over the last couple years. The Summer league gives you an early idea of the type of player drafted, but it really works well when rookies are matched up against 2nd - 3rd year players.			34.8	32.80		Min Played	32.8			MP		94%
				0.587	19.2		Pts Scored	18.20			Pts Scored		95%
				0.179	5.9		Rebounds	5.60
				0.049	1.6		Assist	1.80			Rebounds		95%
				0.032	1.1		Blocks	0.60
				0.053	1.7		Steals	1.40			Assist		89%
				0.056	1.8		Turnovers	1.80
				Total		66.17	Totals	62.20			Totals		94.0%
	7			Forecasted D-League Totals								How to Video  Link
	D-League Notes			FORECAST	0	Adj		D-LEAGUE	0		Grade		0.0%
	If the NBA is the A-League several overseas leagues could be considered B, and C. The NBA has basically a 4th tier league where it treats its players financially like a 4th tier. In turn you get a saturation of players out for their own and not in a team concept. Until the NBA "Makes" the D-League a seriously organized place this league is basically a pick-up style basketball league.			MP	38.5	1.0		MP	0		MP		0%
				Pts Scored	0.6	0.6		Pts Scored	0		Pts Scored		0%
				Rebounds	0.2	0.2		Rebounds	0
				Assist	0.0	0.0		Assist	0		Rebounds		0%
				Blocks	0.0	0.0		Blocks	0
				Steals	0.1	0.1		Steals	0		Assist		0%
				Turnovers	0.1	0.1		Turnovers	0
				Total		0.96		Total	0.00		Total		0.0%
	8			SCOUTING REPORT CARD / Breakdown Analysis								How to Video  Link
	SCOUTING GRADES - (This is a breakdown of data analysis)
	Here is a Evaluation Grading System where all areas are combined. If you are a front office person then you should be able to grade your work in the finest of details vs. the actual output of the players you have been scouting or that are on your team.
	Projected Draft Value	89.1	1	This measure of accuracy is the forecasted vs. actual players production at the NBA Level.
	Projected Mp	99.5	1	Sometimes this can be off due to the depth or concept a NBA team runs,
	NBA - 3rd season	92.8	1	This is the players contract season in most cases and the measure of a GMs success
	NBA - 2nd season	89.8	1	This is the year things begin to take shape some players have a lower ceiling and hit this area immediately
	NBA - 1st Season	95.3	1	Rookie seasons are tough for players on high pct winning teams but they will get their turn
	Capology Report	91.9	1	Knowing a players financial possibilities while he is still in college really helps in drafting, trading, and free agency.
	NBA Summer League	93.3	1	Grain of salt but sometimes that grain really helps define the path you have forecasted for the player
	D-League	0.0	0	Turn on the stat machines
	Forecasting Players Shooting	99.3	1	Basically very vital if production is going to be correct
	All Categories Combined	93.9	8
			14
	In the area below, I simply added some of the categories so you could see how I came up with the accuracy numbers.
	Contract Season	Minus		Plus
	MP	0.00	1	0.99	1
	Pts Scored	0.95	1	0.00	1
	Rebounds	0.88	1	0.00	1
	Assist	0.73	1	0.00	1
	Blocks	0.90	1	0.00	1
	Steals	0.67	1	0.00	1
	Turnovers	0.00	1	0.91	1
	Sub-Total A	4.12	##	1.90
	Total Detail	86.1%				NBA Contract Season Evaluation NOTES
	Sub-Total B	91.7%		0.0%		Correctly Evaluated			7	of	7	Categories
		91.7%				for an astounishing pct			100.00%
	Total Forecasted NBA Stats	92.76%
		Waiting on NBA Games
	Summer League	Minus		Plus
	Pts Scored	0.00	1	0.95	1
	Rebounds	0.00	1	0.95	1
	Assist	0.89	1	0.00	1
	Blocks	0.00	1	0.57	1
	Steals	0.00	1	0.80	1
	Turnovers	0.00	1	0.98	1
	Sub-Total A	0.89	##	4.24	6
	Total Detail	85.4%				SUMMER LEAGUE TOTALS
	Sub-Total B	0.0%		94.0%		Correctly Evaluated			6	of	6	Categories
		94.0%				for an astounishing pct			100.00%
	Total Forecasted NBA Stats	93.32%				Players stats are what we forecasted for him from the time he was in college
	D- League	Minus		Plus			CAPOLOGY
	Pts Scored	0.00	0	0.00	0		CAPOLOGY		Minus		Plus
	Rebounds	0.00	0	0.00	0		Contract Per Year		0.00		0.92
	Assist	0.00	0	0.00	0		Total Forecasted NBA Salary		91.9%
	Blocks	0.00	0	0.00	0		CAPOLOGY  Argument
	Steals	0.00	0	0.00	0		A GMs most important time is to understand the players on every teams value and those in college. Many times a players role can be defined better on a new team. This program takes into account his value.
	Turnovers	0.00	0	0.00	0
	Sub-Total A	0.00	##	0.00
	Total Detail	0.0%
	Sub-Total B	0.0%		0.0%
		0.0%
	Total Forecasted NBA Stats	0.00%
	Correctly Evaluated			0	of	0.001
	for an assessed Evaluation pct of			0.00%
	9			Predicted Stats vs. Rookie Year								How to Video  Link
	Level of Accuracy takes into consideration the  total of all categories and the accuracy of each category.
	Total of the Categories		86.6%		Avg of each Category			93.7%		Total Accuracy			90.1%
	Predicted Stats are done during the players final season in collegiate basketball. The players stats for Pts, Reb, Ast, Blocks, Steals, turnovers, and FGpct are all taken into predictive measures. Predicted Values must be adjusted after 3rd year to Pace of Play, and Team Wins.			Predicted Stats	Per Min	Adj	Per 36	ACTUAL STATS			Grade		95.3%
				MP	27.1	27.0	36.0	MP	27		MP		100%
				Pts Scored	0.50	13.56	18.08	Pts Scored	10.80		Pts Scored		80%
				Rebounds	0.17	4.53	6.04	Rebounds	4.50		Rebounds		99%
				Assist	0.05	1.40	1.86	Assist	1.30		Assist		93%
				Blocks	0.02	0.61	0.82	Blocks	0.90		Turnovers		97%
	PREDICTION taken from year										Total		86.6%
	2006			Steals	0.05	1.37	1.82	Steals	0.90
	ACTUAL STATS From NBA Season
	2006-07			Turnovers	0.07	1.86	2.48	Turnovers	1.80
				Total	0.9	23.3	31.1	Total	20.20
					0.86	23.33			20.20	0.00
	10			Predicted Stats vs. Players 2nd Year in NBA								How to Video  Link
	Level of Accuracy takes into consideration the  total of all categories and the accuracy of each category.
	Total of the Categories		94.3%		Avg of each Category			89.4%		Total Accuracy			91.8%
	Predicted Stats are done during the players final season in collegiate basketball. The players stats for Pts, Reb, Ast, Blocks, Steals, turnovers, and FGpct are all taken into predictive measures. Predicted Values must be adjusted after 3rd year to Pace of Play, and Team Wins.			Predicted Stats	Predict minutes		Per 36	ACTUAL STATS			Grade		89.8%
				MP	31.9	37.0	36.0	MP	37		MP		86%
				Pts Scored	0.56	20.65	20.09	Pts Scored	20.10		Pts Scored		97%
				Rebounds	0.18	6.54	6.36	Rebounds	6.20		Rebounds		95%
				Assist	0.07	2.55	2.48	Assist	2.00		Assist		78%
				Blocks	0.02	0.84	0.82	Blocks	1.00		Turnovers		90%
	PREDICTION taken from year										Total		94.3%
	2006			Steals	0.05	1.87	1.82	Steals	1.40
	ACTUAL STATS From NBA Season									Best Case
	2007-08			Turnovers	0.07	2.55	2.48	Turnovers	2.30	1
				Total	0.9	35.0	34.1	Total	33.0
					0.95	35.00			33.00	0.00
	11			Season Prior to Player declaring for Draft								How to Video  Link
	Player Name		Position		College Season			Height		LBs		Vertical
	Rudy Gay		Shooting Guard		Freshman			#REF!	-9	222		40.5
	Initial Scouting Report		Connecticut		Score			82.9	Draft Value			2
	Predicted Stats are done during the players final season in collegiate basketball. The players stats for Pts, Reb, Ast, Blocks, Steals, turnovers, and FGpct are all taken into predictive measures. Predicted Values must be adjusted after 3rd year to Pace of Play, and Team Wins.			Predicted Stats	Predict minutes		Per 36	ACTUAL STATS			Grade		93.0%
				MP	37.5	37.5	36.0	MP	37.3		MP		99%
				Pts Scored	0.55	20.65	19.82	Pts Scored	18.90		Pts Scored		92%
				Rebounds	0.17	6.54	6.28	Rebounds	5.50		Rebounds		84%
				Assist	0.07	2.55	2.45	Assist	1.70		Assist		67%
				Blocks	0.02	0.84	0.81	Blocks	0.70		Turnovers		98%
	PREDICTION taken from year										Total		87.4%
	2006			Steals	0.05	1.87	1.80	Steals	1.20
	ACTUAL STATS From NBA Season									Best Case
	2008-09			Turnovers	0.07	2.55	2.45	Turnovers	2.60	1
				Total	0.9	35.0	33.6	Total	30.6
					0.93	35.00	33.60		30.60	0.00